PVL tells you the odds of recovery on every claim — so you know what you'll collect before you bid.
484,845 consumer bankruptcy cases were filed in 2024. The median debtor earns $4,060/month and spends $3,522 — leaving razor-thin plan funding. Here's what that means for your recovery odds.
Dismissed for non-payment
Repeat filers
Best district completion rate
Worst district completion rate
Plans modified before completion
Every chart below is built from actual PVL engine output on a live portfolio — completion odds, projected cash flow, and recovery confidence ranges.
51% of Ch. 13 dismissals are for non-payment. Sellers still mark those claims as active. We model the actual odds of recovery — and flag the ones where the cash flow has already stopped.
| Account ID | Seller Status | PVL Engine Output | Claim Amount | PVL EV (P50) | P90 Floor | Last Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATLN-2211324 | Active — Current | 85% Dismissal Prob. | $12,400 | $1,140 | $420 | Aug 2025 |
| DALL-219237 | Active — Performing | 97% Dismissal Prob. | $8,600 | $0 | $0 | Mar 2024 |
| ALBQ-2310446 | Active — Current | High Variance Risk | $6,750 | $890 | $310 | Nov 2025 |
| HOUS-247452 | Active — Current | Tail Risk — Wipeout | $9,200 | $310 | $0 | Jun 2024 |
| PHOE-1847532 | Active — Current | 92% Completion Prob. | $3,180 | $2,920 | $2,610 | Feb 2026 |
| SEAW-2401965 | Active — Current | 88% Completion Prob. | $4,320 | $2,340 | $1,980 | Jan 2026 |
Every claim is scanned for factors that raise or lower recovery odds. Here's what we flagged in a live portfolio.
We model how the trustee actually disburses cash — across every tier — so you know what your unsecured position will realistically recover.
Three layers of analysis that tell you what each claim will recover and when the cash will flow.
We simulate the cash flow on every claim 5,000+ times — varying payment speed, dismissal odds, funding rate, and macro shocks. Instead of one recovery estimate, you get a range: best case, worst case, and most likely.
Every claim gets a recovery value calibrated against five years of actual trustee cash flow. 13+ risk factors — pro se status, wage orders, lien strips, docket signals, district patterns — all roll into the odds of you getting paid.
40+ docket patterns that move the odds — prior filings, missed 341 meetings, cramdown motions, payment gaps. We flag the claims most likely to stop paying before the cash flow dries up.
Upload any portfolio file. We return recovery odds and projected cash flow on every claim — scored, ranked, and ready for your IC.
Actual recovery data feeds back into the engine. Every portfolio you acquire makes the next set of odds more accurate.
Real cash flow comes in. We compare it to what we projected. The difference tunes the model — so the next portfolio's recovery odds are tighter.
Projections inform your price
Trustee disbursements flow in
Actuals vs. projections
District-specific adjustments
Sharper model, winning bids
We said 12% recovery, you collected 11.8%. We document that track record so your IC and LPs can see it.
Completion rates swing from 76% (E.D. Washington) to under 40% in the worst districts. We calibrate recovery odds to each trustee's actual disbursement pattern.
Auto-generated reports showing projected vs. actual recovery — within ±3%. The documentation your committee needs to keep buying.
Every tier receives the Complete Valuation Package. You only pay for the number of claims you need to underwrite each month.
| Underwriting Capability | Foundation | Velocity | Calibration Loop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard in All Valuations | |||
| Monte Carlo Simulation (5,000+ iterations/claim) | — | ||
| Predictive Dismissal & Ch 7 Conversion Odds | — | ||
| Path-Dependent Waterfall Analysis (P50/P90) | — | ||
| Tail Risk Flags & Silent Default Detection | — | ||
| Calibration & Yield Optimization | |||
| Actual vs. Projected Recovery Reporting | — | — | |
| Model Confidence Score | — | — | |
| District-Specific Parameter Tuning | — | — | |
| IC-Ready Performance Memos (auto-generated) | — | — | |
| Cash Flow Recalibration by Trustee | — | — | |
Send us a tape. We'll return recovery odds and projected cash flow on every claim — $500 flat, no commitment.